Now in its 17th year since its humble beginnings in 2008, the GABS Hottest 100 Craft Beers will be announced this Saturday, January 25th. Can Mountain Culture make it three in a row with Status Quo? Will its success to date make for a poll full of easy-drinking hazies?

Upon the appearance of the first NEIPAs, craft beer purists who winced at the viscous liquid predicted a short-lived run for the Hazy IPA style in the H100. And while a literal interpretation of their intent has probably proven them right, with Hazy IPA and NEIPAs stamping a small place but never fully taking over, those detractors didn’t predict the next evolution.

The more approachable but still slightly juicy, hazy pale ale is making a significant mark on the Australian beer scene. It’s difficult to quantify in the H100, since some hazy pales are not identified as such and GABS results can also be slightly inconsistent. Still, standouts like Range Disco, Balter Easy Hazy, Ballistic Hawaiian Haze, Black Hops East Coast Haze, and Mountain Culture Status Quo have been in the poll for at least two years. We can expect a few more hazy pale ales for the 2024 poll.

The heady days of constant industry growth are clearly behind us, and some of our favourite breweries will never appear in the H100 again. But pragmatic industry analysts point to an industry that’s achieving normality with others, where closures are a natural occurrence, new businesses open in their place, and others become something else entirely.

The black cloud of Voluntary Administration continues to loom with some very recent reminders. But VA alone is not the death knell for breweries in the H100. Like the process itself, there are a myriad of factors. Sometimes, we must be humble and admit we don’t fully understand them.

These changes will no doubt have some impact on the H100. We’ll lament the decline and disappearance of some, but watch with interest to see who the up-and-comers are.

The number of breweries registered may also impact the poll. Research indicates approximately 30% fewer breweries and 600 fewer beers available to vote on. Looking through the list of those who entered the 2023 H100 but are not present for 2024, some stand out, but most appear to be small operations.

Fatigue and apathy are likely factors. Despite exceptions, domination by larger breweries and national brands, combined with low poll turnover, deter smaller brewers’ entry. 

Conversely, the new breweries available to vote on this year are mostly unfamiliar names. Likely, young, enthusiastic operations eager to have a go.

I’ll be keen to learn how many votes were cast this year and gauge whether voters themselves are fatigued.

And so, here are my predictions for the GABS Hottest 100 Craft Beers of 2024

• Mountain Culture Status Quo
• Holgate – Mount Macedon Pale Ale
• Rocky Ridge – Jindong Juicy
• Fox Friday – Pale Ale
• Black Hops – G.O.A.T.
• Hiker Brewing – Horizon
• Your Mates – Larry
• Hop Nation – Hazy IPA
• Summary predictions and beers to watch

Mountain Culture – Status Quo

Best result: 1
Last five results: 1,1,-,-,-
Beers available for voting: 6

If it were possible for Status Quo to improve its position, it would.

In 2022, it stormed into the H100 at number one, something no beer has done since Vale Ale in 2010. Little Creatures Pale Ale was the first top beer in 2008. But for those beers, the times were arguably different than they are now.

More recent champions, Bentspoke Crankshaft, Stone & Wood Pacific Ale and Balter XPA, had to fight previous champions before taking the top spot.

As far as time spent at the top, Feral Hop Hog is the only beer to hold number one for three years in a row. Crankshaft, XPA and Creatures Pale Ale have achieved two consecutive years in the top position. Interestingly, Vale Ale is the only number one beer to see the top only once. 

Another dual-year champ is S&W Pacific Ale. What’s even more notable, though, is that it’s reached number one four times, more than any other beer in the poll. Despite being toppled from the top spot three times, each time it reclaims the top spot is a testament to its status as an enduring favourite. Even after the brewery’s acquisition, the beer remains in the top ten.

The target for Status Quo is clear; if it holds number one, it will equal Hop Hog for the most consecutive years in the position. If it can achieve that, and it will, next year could be the most anticipated.

Watch further down the list, too. Stablemates Summer Pale Ale, Be Kind Rewind and Cult IPA all have room to move upwards. I’ll be watching Summer Pale Ale most closely.

Holgate – Mount Macedon Pale Ale

Best result: NA
Last five results: NA
Beers available for voting: 21

Sifting through my inbox shortly after voting opened, I found an email from Holgate Brewhouse promoting Mount Macedon Pale Ale for the H100. It stood out because I couldn’t recall that brewery campaigning noticeably in previous years. 

I had never examined Holgate’s performance in the H100 and was only casually aware that the brewery’s beers featured prominently in earlier years. The sharp decline I uncovered was indeed a surprise. 

From 2008 to 2014, Holgate Brewery consistently performed well, polling 12 different beers during that time. Its highest achiever was the chocolate porter Temptress, which reached inside the top ten in 2011 and 2012, at nine and seven, respectively.

But in 2015, Temptress stood alone at number 59. No Holgate beers would be seen the following year, so it was for the next eight years.

Holgate’s market has historically been localised, with a tourism focus and the goal of drawing visitors to the venue it has owned and operated for years. The brand is nationally distributed but not stocked by the big retailers.

The brewery is a good example of the early days of the H100 when a beer’s position was based almost solely on merit. For various reasons, the operators chose not to engage with the poll to the degree that others have. They are certainly not the only brewery to make this choice, but for Holgate it’s more noticeable.

This year, Holgate celebrates its 25th birthday. The brewery has been in the spotlight for its 25 Years of Beers series and has made a concerted push to promote Mount Macedon Pale Ale in the H100.

Holgate is close to my heart as a brewery in my area and a pioneer of Australian craft brewing. All bias aside, though, eight years is a long time between drinks in terms of the H100. As much as I’d like to see Holgate return to its former H100 glory, the brewery’s recent poll performance, reach and profile suggest restrained hopes.

I predict a position between 100 and 80 for Mount Macedon Pale Ale.

Rocky Ridge – Jindong Juicy

Best result: 20
Last five results: 20, 76, -, -, –
Beers available for voting: 31

Western Australia is arguably the country’s cradle of craft brewing, so I’m encouraged when I can highlight one of its breweries.

Rocky Ridge Brewing launched in 2017 in Busselton in the Margaret River region. It quickly established itself as a reputable brewery with sought-after beers and collaborations with well-known partners.

The brewery has won multiple awards, including Champion Large Brewery at the Perth Royal Food Awards in 2022 and Best Fruit Beer at the 2024 AIBAs for Rock Candy.

Sustainability is one of the brewery’s key tenants, and their environmentally conscious brewing and business practices won them the Telstra Business Awards WA’s promoting sustainability category in 2022.

Sustainability seems to be a key consideration in the brewery’s expansion. Since its beginning, it has grown somewhat organically and has not taken too many risks in its endeavours.

Rocky Ridge’s restraint seems to have paid off. Their strategy has positioned them to begin operations in the east, at the former Thunder Road brewery in Brunswick. Plans are also underway for a venue in their home state’s capital.

Rocky Ridge’s performance in the H100 is encouraging. Jindong Juicy moved up 56 places from 76 to 20 last year,  and Rock Candy was the fourth largest climber in the poll, moving up 148 places from 227 to 79. Also sitting in the 2023 Next List at 170 is owner and head brewer Hamish Coates’ fav, Ace Pale Ale.

Jindong Juicy should move into the teens this year, but the top ten will be hard to crack. Aside from notable exceptions Status Quo and Better Beer, over the last three years, the average increase in positions by beers coming into the top ten has been 4.2 places. The brewery also has thirty other bees available for loyalists to vote on.

Jindong Juicy between 15 and 10. Keep a close watch for guaranteed improvement by the other two as well.

Fox Friday – Pale Ale

Best result: NA
Last five results: NA
Beers available for voting: 6

As encouraging as it is to spruik a beer from WA, it’s nothing compared to the pleasure it gives to highlight one from the forgotten state. 

Moo Brew and James Boag’s made a respectable impression in the early years of the H100. However, despite numerous quality breweries, Tasmania has been in an H100 drought, with no beers featured for eleven years. 

Oddly enough, Tassie’s poor showing started me on my path of analysing H100 results. Perhaps even more ironically, my first published story was connected to a brewery I hoped would break the trend in the 2021 H100 – Spotty Dog.

And the coincidences don’t stop there. Spotty Dog founder Klimt Donohoe, co-hosted the Step-Brewers podcast alongside Ali Davis, former GM of Fox Friday.

Regular readers of my predictions may recall that I have previously endorsed Fox Friday as a strong palace in the H100. However, they have never actively campaigned. When I asked the brewery why, they said they were waiting until they had things in place.

Fox Friday has indeed grown. It now has a presence in Melbourne and on the West Coast. Now, it seems, they’re ready. The brewery is championing Fox Friday Pale Ale for a place in the H100 through email and social media.

But I wonder if waiting was a mistake. When Fox Friday arrived on the scene, the brewery had the hype and potential to be as sought after as Deeds, Range or even Mountain Culture. And while, for a time, they were, it feels like their momentum has slowed.

They also have ten beers available for voting. That’s nine beers even avid Fox Friday fans can inadvertently use to dilute the vote. Having said that, Rocky Ridge had thirteen beers to vote for last year, and Jindong Juicy performed well anyway.

I’ll conservatively back Fox Friday Pale Ale for a place between 50 and 70. I’d also like to see Fox Friday West Coast IPA in the 80s or 90s.

Black Hops – G.O.A.T.

Best result: 5
Last five results: 12, 10, 5, 5, –
Beers available for voting: 5

Black Hops entering Voluntary Administration came with much controversy and commentary. Subscribers to the brewery’s equity crowdfunding with Birchal were notably vocal in the wake of worrying details revealed by the administrator, and former sources from inside the brewery had their own take on how the business was run in the lead-up.

The brewery emerged from VA under new ownership by a group of new and former investors, calling themselves Black Hops Craft Pty Ltd. The new entity acquired the brand and equipment as part of the deal and retained much of the original staff, all while instituting a new ownership structure.

Now at the helm is industry veteran Nick Boots. In an article on The Crafty Pint, Nick expressed his desire to rebuild relationships with suppliers and crowdfunding investors. He indicated that the majority of subscribers wanted to stay in contact and engage with the brand.

The H100 may prove whether those intentions are sincere. It’s reasonable to assume that most, if not all, EQF subscribers would have voted for Black Hops in previous polls. 

Black Hops peaked in the H100 in 2020 with seven beers. G.O.A.T reached fifth position, followed closely by Black Hops Pale Ale and Hornet at sixteen and seventeen.

In 2021, G.O.A.T. retained its position, but the overall performance of the brewery was down slightly. The trend continued, leaving G.O.A.T. just outside the top ten in 12th position in 2023, with only East Coast Haze along for the ride in 71st position.

Black Hops will be an interesting brand to watch in the coming years. If the new operators have their way, some tweaks to the brand and current lineup of beers, as well as the potential for a range of products with broader appeal, seem likely. For better or worse, over the long term, it may come at the immediate cost of staunch supporters who identify with the brand and spurred its early growth.

But like Pirate Life, while Black Hops may disappear entirely from the H100 for a time, it could re-emerge with a finessed image and altered strategy.

For the moment, though, the trend will continue down. G.O.A.T. will drop somewhere between 50 and 30.

Hiker Brewing – Horizon

Best result: NA
Last five results: NA
Beers available for voting: 5

Whenever the chorus of H100 detractors bemoans the marketing budgets of the top beers or a lack of change within the lineup, I point to breweries like Hiker as evidence to the contrary.

Located in Salisbury in Brisbane’s south, the small brewery staffed primarily by the brewing team strongly focuses on community. Hiker Brewing’s multi-award-winning beers undoubtedly stand on their own two feet, but even the owners confess to fortuitous timing leading them to pick up some clientele from nearby brewery Ballistic when they were experiencing difficulties.

Hiker found surprise success in the 2023 H100 with Cloudscapes, a 7% ABV hazy IPA. Only 4000 litres of the beer was made, and yet the relatively small batch brew reached 57th position. It’s a testament to community engagement and good beer.

As with many breweries that have unexpected success in the H100, the attention further improves their chances the following year. Hiker’s profile is helped by its connection to the Pour It Out podcast and, to a lesser extent, Aussie Beer Voyage. The brewery has continued to grow its operation, seizing the opportunity to open a second venue at Black Hop’s old Brisbane premises. 

Interestingly, Hiker has opted to swap out their previous high flyer, Cloudscapes, for something perhaps more suited to the H100. This year, the brewery is asking its supporters to vote for Horizon, a 4.5% hazy pale ale. Changing horses midstream isn’t a common strategy. If it pays off, it’s a good indicator of how voters sometimes support breweries instead of just beers.

Hiker’s profile should show Horizon easily taking a place in the H100. But the switch-out has me inclined to make a conservative prediction—a place in the 40s.

Your Mates – Larry

Best result: 3
Last five results: 4, 5, 3, 4, 5
Beers available for voting: 5

Always a bridesmaid, never a bride…

Larry is shaping up to have quite a unique path in the H100. It’s been in the H100 a total of five times, entering at thirteen in 2018 to many raised eyebrows and peaking at number 3 in 2021.

To date, I’ve failed to predict its movement accurately. In 2022, alongside Better Beer, I thought it was a top contender for number one, but instead, it dropped to fifth place. Last year, I suggested further decline and departure from the top ten altogether. But Larry proved me wrong again by improving one position to fourth.

Larry is part of an interesting cohort of beers that have hung around the top ten even longer than some that have reached number one. Young Henry’s Newtowner has been in the top ten for seven consecutive years beginning in 2017, and 4 Pines Kolsch saw five consecutive years from 2011 to 2015. Beechworth Pale has taken a top ten position seven times since 2014, dipping outside in 

Larry still stands apart even from Newtowner, Beechy Pale and 4 Pines Kolsch. It’s the only beer not to reach number one that has stayed in the top 5 for as long as it has.

Since entering the top ten in 2019, Larry has moved an average of 1.25 position, rising by one four times and dropping by two once. Since entering the H100 poll, its average movement is 2.6 positions per year. Over the past six years, Larry has improved by nine positions overall, peaked at 3rd place in 2021, and has consistently remained in the top 5 since 2019, demonstrating sustained popularity.

However, a drop might be on the cards for Larry despite its improvement last year. Sources from the Sunshine Coast report what I’ve seen myself on social media, that campaigning by the brewery has been quiet.

Larry for a place between five and ten.

Hop Nation – J-Juice Hazy IPA

Best result: 8
Last five results: 55, 68, 58, 41, 10
Beers available for voting: 6

Circa 2017, the buzz from the US around a new and controversial style of IPA resulted in some of the first Australian examples of the style. Melbourne Brewery Hop Nation was already renowned for a hop-forward range of beers, but their early take on the New England IPA, then named Jedi Juice, gained widespread attention.

Jedi Juice debuted in the H100 at number eight, declining one place each year over the next two.

After a branding adjustment and being renamed J-Juice, the beer appeared in the 2020 H100 at 41. It dropped slightly over the next two years and rose to 55 for the 2023 poll.

J-Juice has undergone many changes over the years. Whilst brand colours are largely the same, label design has experienced at least five tweaks. ‘NEIPA’ has been removed, and the beer is now referred to as a Hazy IPA.

Hop Nation is noticeably campaigning for J-Juice, whereas in at least the last two to three years, the brewery’s push was behind the surprise 2021 success, Rattenhund. Why they’ve decided to make this change is anyone’s guess. Still, perhaps the mythical lager renaissance is turning out to be hyperbole, and the brewery places more hope in a hazy IPA reaching a higher rank than a pilsner.

Vigorous campaigning could see J-Juice approach its former glory. A position between 20 and 40.

Summary predictions and beers to watch

So, with my more reasoned predictions out of the way, I’ll leave you with a few more to watch out for as results are announced.

Hitting social media early with the H100 campaign shows that a brewery is keen on a place. But sponsored posts hint at a serious brewery indeed. That’s what I’ve seen constantly from Burleigh Brewing since voting opened. They’re not the only ones, of course, but they’ve piqued my interest. Twisted Palm and Big Head have been the brewery’s standout performers in recent years, but movement in the poll has been erratic and they dropped out altogether last year. The only way is up, I guess. I predict a respectable return between 50 and 70 for Big Head, at least. Hopefully Twisted Palm is along for the ride.

I’d written off Kaiju Krush! last year. Their downward trajectory from 2018 onwards was as evident as any I’ve seen. But despite my prediction it could disappear from the poll, Krush gained 14 places, appearing at 33. Recent news withstanding: 2024 felt like a shot in the arm for Kaiju. The brewery won Champion Medium Australian Brewery at the AIBAs and founder Callum Reeves taking a position as chair of the Independent Brewers Association felt like a reminder of Kaiju’s legacy and place in the industry. Krush and Metamorphosis also maintain a presence on the shelves of national retailers, something that goes a long way in the H100. Perhaps not 14, but I predict Krush! will increase up to ten more places this year.

Stone & Wood’s core beers appear to be trending downwards. From 2022 to 2023, H100 champion Pacific Ale dropped more positions than it has in thirteen years when it went from 4 to 8, but as a beer that’s been in the top 3 longer than any other, its enduring popularity can’t be underestimated (as I learned in 2023). Cloud Catcher has also been on the decline since 2019. Keep an eye out for S&W/Mountain Culture collaborations, though. If Hinterland Hazy Pale Ale’s appearance last year is anything to go by, Backpack Pale Ale and Backpack West Coast IPA stand a good chance of making an appearance.

From the Balter camp, XPA is unlikely to leave the top 3, but stablemates Easy Hazy, Hazy, and Captain Sensible have been on the decline. Balter Cerveza had a strong debut, and the brewery’s Collab beers often make an appearance in the H100. If I had to choose from the four brewed in 2024, which among them would safely feature, I’d take the well-received NZ Pilsner they concocted with Garage Project, but Loftus Express (Yakima Chief & Loftus Ranches), Modern Pale Ale (Firestone Walker) or West Coast IPA (Craft Coast) could appear also.

Coastal Victorian brewery Blackman’s Brewery are still going strong and have consistently campaigned with Juicy Banger. The beer entered the H100 at 82 in 2017, and despite an odd slump of 45 places in 2019, the beer has been trending upwards. In 2023, it experienced its most significant increase and scraped inside the top 30, suggesting a possible position in the high teens or low twenties this year.

Keep a close eye on Little Creatures Pale Ale. The former champion has never left the poll and lurks just outside the top ten at 13. There’s been a concerted push online for the beer. Likewise, for 4 Pines Pacific Ale. Positioning on taps in CUB-contracted venues as an alternative to S&W Pacific Ale has kept the beer in the 20s from 2019 to 2022. Last year, it snuck into the teens.

Whilst perhaps not as high profile as Fox Friday, White Bay Brewery is another I’ve been watching for a couple of years now. Only this week did the brewery announce a merger with Hawkers, which signified growth it wants to sustain. Whilst there’s no sign of campaigning for the H100 on social media, three beers were available for voting, including the 2022 Indie’s Best Beer, White Bay Lager. It’s a beer reminiscent of Hop Nation Rattenhund and could see a place in the 90s or even 80s.

Better Beer may be a litmus test for the impact of marketing and influence. The force behind that beer caused it to debut in 6th place in 2021 and equal the position the following year. Its presence caused quite a stir. So much so that sources behind the brand admitted to pulling back on campaigning in 2023. Better Beer has been a runaway success and is arguably not reliant on any potential profile boost from the H100 anyway. It should drop further down the list this year.

Attempts by Cooper’s brewery to hang with the cool kids, Cooper’s XPA and Cooper’s Pacific Ale, declined roughly 30 places each from 2022 to 2023. However, their renowned beers, Pale Ale, Sparkling Ale and even Best Extra Stout, have improved their standing since the brewery’s successful H100 campaign in 2022. This might be their peak, though, as I can’t see Pale Ale getting any higher inside the top ten, and the other two are unlikely to gain further ground, either. The brewery did start campaigning on the first day of voting, so anything’s possible.

Moffat Beach, Beerfarm and Wayward also began their campaigns as early as possible with social media posts on the first voting day. Moffat Beach’s beers are likely to continue their ascent, albeit at a reduced rate, but Beerfarm’s Royal Haze, which bounced between 20 and 10 since debuting in 2020, will struggle to improve on its 2023 position at fourteen. Wayward’s Raspberry Berliner Weisse, Sourpuss, has featured in the H100 six times since 2016, but for their 2024 H100 campaign, they’re championing the more approachable midstrength, Hazy Mid. In another switch out of a proven performer (admittedly erratic), it will be interesting to see if it pays off.

Bridge Road Brewers also had early speed out of the gate for Beechworth Pale Ale. It’s an enduring champion for indie beer with a consistent presence in the top 20. The brewery has the record for the most placings across all sixteen years of the poll, yet Beechy Pale has stood virtually alone for much of the last decade. Last year it equalled its best performance by reaching 5th position. There’s a chance it could topple Larry from its position at 4th, but the top three might be outside Beechy’s reach.

Don’t underestimate my fav, Hawkers West Coast IPA. After entering at 86 in 2020 and dropping to 87 and then to 94, it surged 57 places to 37th position in 2023. Strong campaigning, high profile and much admiration and respect for the brand should push it up further. I’m hoping for something in the 20s.

In addition to Newtowner, watch out for Young Henry’s ‘Classic’ range. The beers are ranged with the national retailers and are priced to meet the more sensitive demands of the current market.

Helios Brewing has campaigned vigorously for Dyonisys. The sought-after Oat Cream DIPA debuted at 85 last year and could improve by as many as 20 places.

Onwards to the countdown…

And that, as they say, is that.

If you’re keen, check out The Crafty Pint’s live broadcast of the countdown. I’ll be lurking in the background, feeding more stats and analysis and watching commentary in the YouTube chat.

Whichever way you choose to watch the countdown this weekend, make sure you do it with a tasty beer – hopefully an indie one.

And don’t take things too seriously.